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Forecast Discussion Example

Forecast discussions are custom personalized weather forecasts that can be targeted to meet specific needs. Included here is a ski area forecast example: An upper level low pressure system currently sitting over Northern Utah is moving northeastward and will track into Wyoming and South Dakota by tonight. This storm track is not conducive to heavy snow over the Colorado Front Range mountains.  Heavy snow with this system will fall over Wyoming and Montana where winter storm warnings are currently in effect with up to 2 feet of snowfall forecast for mountain areas. There will however, be enough lift, instability, and cold air over the northern Colorado mountains for occasional snow showers this afternoon and tonight as a cold front pushes through dropping the snow levels from 10,000 ft to 8,500 ft tonight. Accumulations will be light with an inch or so possible, but maybe a few inches if a band of snow were to hang around long enough. Snowmaking will be possible tonight as the wet bulb temperatures fall to the lower 20’s by 9pm.

For Tuesday & Wednesday, Colorado will be in between 2 weather systems with our current weather maker pushing off into the Great Lakes region and a new low pressure system will form over the southern California region. This will mean drying and warming trend for Tuesday and Wednesday. Temperatures will warm back up into the 40s and 50s during the day, but overnight temperatures will still fall into the mid 20s. Snowmaking will be possible from Tuesday evening into Wednesday morning and then again during the overnight hours on Wednesday into Thursday morning. It will be a bit breezy overnight Wednesday with west winds in the 15-20 kt range.

Long term: After a couple of warmer and dry days on Tuesday and Wednesday, another storm system will move in from the west by Thursday evening,which will bring colder temperatures and an increasing chance for natural snowfall. At this point in time the system appears to be fast moving and lacking moisture with only a few inches of snowfall (Thur evening and Thur night) with the initial storm system. There will be, however, a nice broad trough of low pressure sitting over the northern Plains with a cold northwesterly upper level flow over Colorado from Fri-Sun. Within this flow there will be weak disturbances passing through giving us the chance for light snowfall each day. By Saturday night into Sunday, the forecast models are hinting at the possibility for a stronger storm system including heavier snowfall with upslope (NE) flow into the Front Range. It is a ways out in time, but it’s definitely worth keeping our eyes on.

Posted in Weather Discussion.


Northern Colorado Mountain Weather Discussion

Northern Colorado’s mountains are currently under an upper level ridge of high pressure and will continue to be on Monday and Tuesday. This will result in fair weather with sunny and warm days, but clear and cool nights. Snow making will not likely be possible Monday-Wednesday with warm day time temperatures and not quite cold enough night time temperatures. However, wet bulb temperatures may drop into the mid to upper 20’s at high mountain top locations above 11,000 ft during this period resulting in a limited overnight snow making potential at high elevations.  A low pressure system will move move in from the northwest on Wednesday and bring in some colder air by Thursday. At this point in time it appears moisture will be limited over Colorado resulting in only light amounts of natural snowfall with a few inches of snow accumulation at high elevations at best. Most of the moisture will stay well north of CO in WY. By Thursday and Friday nights, wet bulb temperatures will fall into the lower 20s at both base and mountain top elevations making for good snow making weather. A large trough of low pressure will develop over the western US later next week, but it appears at this time the storm track will be over southern Colorado and northern New Mexico. Natural snowfall chances look limited late this week into early next week. However, temperatures will be cooler than normal with the jet stream positioned over sothern CO likely resulting in an extended period of cool and dry weather favorable for snow making.

Posted in Weather Discussion.